Tag Archives: Europe

Democracy – Under Threat in Europe – Must be Struggled and Fought For

A threat to democracy frequently follows major shocks in international relations. The period between the two World Wars saw Germany, the USSR, Spain and Italy sacrifice democracy at the altar of populist dictators. Unfortunately some of the slouching beasts from history that led to that collapse of democracy have now awakened from their slumber in Europe.

Greece, long  associated with the very concept  of democracy, is but an extreme example of this  growing threat. Many of the issues that threaten the future of democracy in Greece are present in a number of other countries in Europe, including in Ireland, though obviously with different emphasis and to a different degree. The future of democracy in Europe is being ever more closely  linked – through a ghastly financial domino theory  which says that if Greece falls, Spain, Italy, Ireland and  Portugal cannot be far behind.

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A Strategic Analysis Suggests that Ireland Should Vote Yes in the Referendum on the Fiscal Stability Treaty

A risk management perspective also suggests that a yes vote is the current best choice for Ireland.

With so much uncertainty and conflicting information, perhaps the only rational way to evaluate which way to vote in the referendum on the Fiscal Treaty is to look at it from a strategic/risk management perspective based on likely developments in the euro zone over the next few years. Considering the impact on Ireland of those possible and foreseeable alternatives should clarify what a rational voter should do. This is necessary as it is most likely that Ireland will be voting in advance of any of the development set out below.

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The European Dream is Over. What Will Replace it?

The imminent collapse of the Euro is a symptom of a broader and potentially terminal malaise in the EU. This latest, fourth failed effort this year, signals the beginning of the end. Continue reading

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Merkel’s Folly an Exercise in Germany Neo-Colonialism

My article “Merkel’s Folly an exercise in Germany neo-colonialism” in Studies review, autumn 2011 edition, also deals with German behaviour in the current economic difficulties. Studies is a serious and challenging quarterly review, a recognised forum for serious discussion, published in Ireland by the Jesuit community,www.studiesirishreview.ie.

Although the Studies article and my more comprehensive analysis both consider Germany’s role in the new European order, the articles differ considerably in content and treatment. The Studies article is shorter and deals with the basics as they presented themselves writing to a deadline. The other piece is longer, more fluid in presentation and reflects developments up to mid-September 2011.

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German Economic Behaviour, as Illustrated in the Eurozone Crisis, is a Form of Neo-Colonialism, and an Inadvertent “Game” of 10 Little Indians

My article “Merkel’s Folly an exercise in Germany neo-colonialism” in Studies review, autumn 2011 edition, also deals with German behaviour in the current economic difficulties. Studies is a serious and challenging quarterly review, a recognised forum for serious discussion, published in Ireland by the Jesuit community,www.studiesirishreview.ie. Continue reading

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10 Reasons Why the Euro is Likely to Fail

While we were the agents of our own misfortune in Ireland, the continuing attack by the markets on Euro countries, which we are caught up in, has a very rational basis. As many have pointed out, including George Soros, Paul Krugman, and Erik Jones (Prof of European studies at the Bologna centre of Johns Hopkins University) there are significant flaws in the Euro, which may lead it to fail. The 10 most important reasons are as follows: Continue reading

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Iran, the US, and the Middle East

A number of interesting, off the record, perspectives came up at the IISS conference in Geneva, Global Strategic Review in September 2010.

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Russian Energy Monopoly a Threat to Divided EU States

This article first appeared in the 7 January 2009 edition of The Irish Times and is reproduced here with their kind permission.

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Stalin’s Successors – The Dangers of Russia’s Monopoly of EU Energy Supplies

There’s a fuzzy perception of Russia today as being like a teenager “going through a bad patch.” Squabbling with its neighbours, inclined to throw its weight about,  not fully reconciled to the loss of the Soviet Empire, overkeen on the trappings of wealth, but nothing it won’t – given a bit of time – grow out of. Having observed the fall of communism with some relief,  many Western observers have been prepared to indulge the Kremlin’s post-Soviet antics, “throwing shapes” while it adjusted to a new reality. Continue reading

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